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Annual Awards Nerdism Oscar Predictions Visuals Bests and Writing

I wont go into a whole lot of detail, but tonight Ill be predicting the winners for the visual awards (Best Achievement in Cinematography, Best Achievement in Editing and Best Achievement in Visual Effects), the bests awards (Best Animated Feature Film of the Year, Best Foreign Language Film of the Year and Best Documentary, Feature) and the writing awards (Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen and Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published). Remember: Red = the longshot, Orange = the predicted winner, Green = who I want to win.



Remember that time when Emmanuel Lubezki didnt win best cinematographer for The Tree of Life? Does anyone remember that travesty? The Academy has a lot of atoning to do, and I can definitely see them righting their wrongs this year by giving him the award for his brilliant, transcendent work in Gravity. I still havent seen Prisoners but maaaaan, Roger Deakins must be getting fairly annoyed with all these nominations hes getting without actually winning. I still cant believe he lost for Skyfall, but, well, this looks like another year that hell go empty handed.





Finally! A category that I can fully comment on because Ive actually seen all of these movies! And it is an interesting category indeed. To be honest, I was a little disappointed in the editing of 12 Years a Slave, particularly at the start where we had all of those fade in/fade out splicing together of scenes...it just didnt feel very Steve McQueen at all. But thats about the only thing I didnt like about that film. Editing American Hustle would have been a tough job considering all of the improv that came into play but yeah, wasnt very taken by it. Dallas Buyers Club is a rather odd choice to have in this category - particularly over the brilliant editing of The Wolf of Wall Street - but if that floats anyones boat, then thats okay. Id say that this is very much a race between Captain Phillips and Gravity, both of which have brilliant editing. Im more inclined to give the edge to Gravity, since Im 98% sure that the Oscars will be a Gravity sort of night.



Again, I cant wait to see the news crying over how The Hobbit wont be winning this award. This is the one theyll be most upset about, too. But this is all Gravitys.



Usually Im well versed in this category, considering theyre the only ones that actually come out before the Oscars happen, but I havent seen any of them. I considered getting out The Croods and Despicable Me 2 several times but I just...didnt. And Im like, the only person ever who hasnt seen Frozen. So yeah, I cant offer up anything worthy about these films, but I do hope that Frozen wins because yay for girl power and all that stuff.



Ive only seen The Hunt, which is probably my favourite foreign language film of 2013 (with Blue is the Warmest Colour and The Past close behind), so Im campaigning for this all the way. I do think that it could pull through with a win, but The Great Beauty seems to have this all locked in...even if I havent actually heard of anyone who liked it...



My documentary watching has been really down this year, and my favourite (and also one of my favourites of the year), Stories We Tell, was not nominated. So I dont have any preferences here, but I could see this being very much a race between The Act of Killing and 20 Feet From Stardom.



I can see American Hustle winning for its non existent script but Im going to keep an open mind and say that it isnt going to do that. I still havent seen Her (tomorrow! tomorrow!), though Id really like to see that win, if only because Spike Jonze is adorable and his speech would be equally adorable. After recent events, I definitely cant see Blue Jasmine winning, even if it does have the best screenplay of the pack. Dallas Buyers Club is a bit of an outside and Nebraska will likely go home empty handed.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke - Before Midnight / Billy Ray - Captain Phillips / John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave / Terence Winter - The Wolf of Wall Street / Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope - Philomena


Gaaaaaaah, this is probably the toughest race we have at the Oscars. Out of all of them, Id definitely say that Before Midnight has the best screenplay of all, but considering that this is the only nomination it has (how?!), it might be a little tough to see it win. Captain Phillips won the WGA, so that gives it a wee bit of an edge. If 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture, it could get a little bit of a boost here, because the Oscar loves the completist party. The Wolf of Wall Street hasnt gained an awful lot of traction for its screenplay, but then again, it does have a pretty awesome and definitely extensive screenplay that makes sure it isnt an outsider. Philomena got the BAFTA, which, judging by the craziness of this years victors at that awards ceremony, that could mean absolutely nothing. However, I do have a sneaking feeling that Philomena could come out on top. The screenplay itself is fantastic, and I dont think the Academy will be able to resist this British delight, because they never can. A bit of a risky prediction, but this is seriously anyones game.

Phew - that was a big list. Tomorrow will be dedicated to the actors and the directors (#prayercircleforleo), and then the day after Ill be ranking the Best Picture nominees. Were almost there! Anyway, who do you think will come out as winners in these categories? Particularly the adapted screenplay race? Let me know in the comments!

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Annual Awards Nerdism Oscar Predictions Soundies and Design

Forgive me if this years awards nerdism has been a little slight compared to previous years. Normally Id attribute this to not being able to watch most of the films before the Oscars, but since I finally moved to a place that has three multiplexes and three other smaller cinemas, I have no excuse (except in the case of Nebraska, which is only playing in Auckland and Wellington so I wont see that until DVD time). And unlike the past couple of years, Ive been much more into this years awards season because I think theres a few races that remain wide open - even the bigger categories (I still have my prayer circle for Leo going, just tweet out something with #prayercircleforleo and we can make a movement). So yeah, as per usual, Ill roll out my 55% informed predictions, but I dont have the usual pictures to go with them (like Smiling Silva, Overjoyed David and Loopy Looper) because Im lazy and couldnt be bothered figuring out three photos for them. Instead, I have colours, because thats totally original. To add to the originality, theyre traffic light colours, and heres how they work:

Red - The longshot, the outsider who pretty much wont be getting their name called out.
Orange - The real prediction, the one who will probably get their name called out.
Green - Who I really want to win.

Tonight, Ill be looking at the Sound categories (Best Achievement in Sound Mixing, Best Achievement in Sound Editing, Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures - Original Song, and Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures - Original Score) and the Design categories (Best Achievement in Production Design, Best Achievement in Make-Up and Hairstyling, Best Achievement in Costume Design). As we get through the predictions, I promise therell be some of my famous prediction poetry. Because Im secretly Shakespeare.




Im not sure about anyone else, but did anyone kinda forget that Lone Survivor was a thing? It comes out in NZ today, and I was genuinely surprised at when the trailer popped up before a couple of movies I went to go and see. It was strange to see it pushed so much for awards contention, considering it looks like just another Mark Wahlberg film, and well, it came out on the other side worse off, and has its place in the two sound categories. Will it win big? Unlikely. This is definitely going all to Gravity, because the sound in that is INSANE. It is probably in my top three aspects of that film (theres a long, long list of stuff I love about that film). Just as a side note: isnt it sad how little love Inside Llewyn Davis got? I just saw it yesterday and while I wasnt taken by the whole film, it was impeccably made and Oscar Isaac gave a perfect performance (then again, the acting category was so packed this year).






All Gravity. And just putting The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug as the longshot because I cant wait to hear on the news after the Oscars that The Hobbit didnt win any Oscars. They even did that for the bloody Baftas. Only one more year, one more year.




Yes, I did just put Alone Yet Not Alone as the longshot because the rest of the songs are so close together, it is hard to pick a longshot. So lets just have a moment of silence for the rescinded nominee, whos song was actually terrible, and the movie looks equally terrible, and which should have been replaced by a song from The Great Gatsby (ANY ONE OF THEM WOULD HAVE DONE FINE THANK YOU). Alas, this is a pretty tough race, and Im going with Frozen to take the award, even though any one of them could take it. And even though Happy has been played on the radio here a ridiculous amount of times, Id be, um, happy if that wins.

But for the last time, lets tell a few Alone Yet Not Alone funnies:
-Nominated Yet Not Nominated
-Weirdest Possible Oscar Performance Ever Yet Not Weirdest Possible Oscar Performance Ever
-"Friendly Campaigning" Yet Not Friendly Campaigning
-"Distributed" Yet Not Distributed
-etc etc etc




Seems to be many of the usual suspects here. Like, John Williams could just hit a single piano key and then hed have a nomination. However, Id say hes the long shot here, and first time nominee Steven Price will probably get the award for his brilliant scoring of Gravity. Because Gravity will probably win all of the awards, yall.




Lets just call this the section where The Great Gatsby wins all the awards because Elizabeth Debicki still deserved a supporting nod and if The Wolf of Wall Street wasnt so brilliant, Leo would be flying the Gatsby flag too. But yes, Ive accepted the fact that Im one of a small minority who thinks Baz Luhrmann and his Gatsby are the best, so Im excited to campaign the shit out of it being nominated for a few awards. And itll probably win. Why? Because for the 50 millionth time, Gatsby is awesome.




This category kind of confuses me, but Id say that Dallas Buyers Club because it has the rest of its big nominations behind it and Jared Letos make-up in particular was quite good. But yeah, it is really anyones game. I wouldnt be surprised if Bad Grandpa won, but then again, it would be weird if Bad Grandpa was an Oscar winner, yknow?




Yeeeeeeah, some more Gatsby love for me to campaign the shit out of. But the costumes were actually amazing, werent they? Especially that dress that Daisy wears to Gatsbys party that is made from crystals, and everything that Jordan wears, and Gatsbys pink suit...ugh, theyre all so pretty. Id say that Gatsby does have the most expansive and exciting costume set out of them all, but they may just give American Hustle a bit of love here (but Im banking on American Hustle being completely shut out, just to spite David O. Russell).

So theres tonights set! Tomorrow Ill look at all the "Bests" categories (Animated, Foreign...) and the "Visuals". Who do you think will win big in these categories?

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Annual Awards Nerdism is Back! Oscar Predictions

The madness is just around the corner. Dashing to the cinemas every five seconds to see the latest awards-worthy movies (lol, I dont go to the cinema any more). Getting up at weird hours to watch nominations being announced. Trying every website on the universe to see who will stream the awards ceremonies. But thats all part of awards season, which is definitely my favourite season of the year.

This year will be a little bit different, though. As I am going to Japan in January, Im going to miss the Critics Choice Awards, the Oscar nominations and the Golden Globes - which are kind of the biggest things. However, I will get to them a few days later, so I hope some people will still be around! My awards coverage will officially start this week with the Indie Spirit nominations, where you will see the new Happy Fassy, Lowkey Loki and Overwhelmed Owen. As always, when we get to Oscar time, I will definitely be doing prediction poetry. If you want to know what you have to look forward to, heres my coverage from last year/earlier this year.

For now, though, here are my early predictions. Im proud of the design work that I put into them - hopefully that will overshadow the fact that Ive been awful at watching the right films this year.

So, whos with me in this crazy season? And what do you think of my predictions?

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Annual Awards Nerdism Ranking the Best Picture Nominees

I think Ive done pretty well this Oscar season, seeing all but one Best Picture nominee - Nebraska - before Oscar time. And I must say, the quality has been high. Not 2010-2011 Oscar season level high, but pretty close to it. So heres my ranking of all of the films Ive seen that are nominated:


8. American Hustle, Dir. David O. Russell
To be honest, American Hustle is probably the only Oscar nominee from this year that I didnt really like - its skating someone in between a 2.5/5 and a 3/5. I just couldnt stand the sprawling nature of it and how the improvisation was so indulgent and distracting. Otherwise, it was fun enough and offered a few interesting insights, and had some stellar performances from Amy Adams and Bradley Cooper. There were parts of it that were great, and some not so great parts...it was a mixed bag that I struggle to understand how so many people loved it, but hey, everyone seems to love David O. Russell so thats cool. I do think that itll end up going home without an Oscar to its name, though.


7. Dallas Buyers Club, Dir. Jean-Marc Vallee
Now heres a film that would be nothing without the dedicated performances from Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto. It tells a fairly basic story in a fairly basic way (and yes, it could fall into that dreaded Oscar bait territory) but it manages to be touching, relevant and actually worthy of the gold bestowed upon it because of the two central performances. I wouldnt say that it is particularly memorable and will have a loud, proud place on the hall of fame, but since its here right now, it is worth celebrating a little bit.


6. Philomena, Dir. Stephen Frears
This seems to be the dark horse to the awards, since it just showed up and its just there. In fact, I wasnt even sure that I wanted to make the trip to the cinema to see it, but Im glad I did. Im also glad that Stephen Frears is back in the fray, because his last few films - Cheri, Tamara Drewe and Lay the Favourite - slipped under the radar even before they came out. Philomena is a devastating little film, which shows film-making and its most plain but most able to tell a good story. Which I think is an achievement in itself, because good, simple storytelling is often overlooked for so many other aspects. Oh and yeah, I cried throughout the entire thing.


5. Captain Phillips, Dir. Paul Greengrass
Im still not at all over this film. I found the clip of Tom Hanks final scene in this film and it is still as emotionally scarring as it was the first time I watched it. To say that the entire film hinges on that one scene wouldnt be a compliment to the rest of the film, but that final scene is probably the best acting Ive ever seen on film. However, the rest of the film is so intense and expertly made, that it brings true meaning to cinema being an experience. Plus, theres the incredible debut from Barkhad Abdi, who has justly been earning his share of accolades. And its also great how unpatriotic this film is. Had it been in the hands of anyone else other than Paul Greengrass, this film could have been a two hour lovefest towards America, the land of the brave.


4. Her, Dir. Spike Jonze
I only saw this yesterday but it already has a special place in my heart. Probably because it made me happy and depressed in equal measure. Is it a sweet film? Yes. But is it a sign of worrying times? Yes. It manages to be so many things at once, much like Samantha herself. Its really difficult to sum up this film, other than to say that it tells a strange story and makes it strangely relatable. Such an endearing little film with perfect production design. So much to love.


3. 12 Years a Slave, Dir. Steve McQueen
If 12 Years a Slave wins tomorrow, Ill be emphatically happy. Mostly because Steve McQueen is a perfect director, and while this film is my least favourite of his, it still warrants a 5/5 rating from me. I cant help but feel like this is our Schindlers List and much will be said about this film in the future. And honestly, Steve McQueen did an almost perfect job of making this film (I really wasnt a fan of the early editing and Hans Zimmers score, but the rest of it was amazing), making an utterly brutal, unflinching portrayal of something most filmmakers would shy away from. Its so, so, so great. I cant wait to see Steve McQueen up there accepting the award.


2. Gravity, Dir. Alfonso Cuaron
Gravity is the other favourite to take the award and I wouldnt mind seeing this one win either. Mainly because it is another film that is pretty much our generations phenomenon: well be talking about it for years to come. It is masterful filmmaking of the highest order, it has changed things in cinema, it has reminded us that cinema is alive and kicking...and when you think about it, it is part of a very select group. So if it wins, Ill be very, very happy. Theres nothing between both 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, which makes things ever so exciting.



1. The Wolf of Wall Street, Dir. Martin Scorsese
This doesnt have a shit show of winning (unless all the voters are on ludes, but we know theyre all prudes, dude). But upon another watch this film became my favourite film of the year, and definitely a strong representative of our times. And, well, even though it is three hours long, every second is perfect. From the batshit crazy performances from Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill and Margot Robbie (along with the amazing ensemble), to the wonderful screenplay, to the electric direction from Martin Scorsese, just...everything. This movie is probably scarier than all of the horror films from 2013 put together.

So, the big prediction:

Yessir, all bets are placed on 12 Years a Slave to take the big prize, with a little bit of competition coming from Gravity and (ugh) American Hustle. However, I doubt anything will be able to take down Steve McQueens masterpiece.

What say you? Are you on the 12 Years a Slave camp? Guess well find out tomorrow!

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Annual Awards Nerdism Oscar Predictions with poetry Acting and Directing

Well lookie here, Im back to my world famous (okay, maybe not), fantastic prediction poetry that everyone loves. I am not a poet, nor do I have any intentions of becoming one, but normal predictions do bore me a little bit and spinning a rhyme is one of my favourite things to do. It is dry stuff, but hopefully you find some joy in it...



Without Paul Greengrass its not really the same,
Especially as his place went to Alexander Payne,
Remember that film The Descendants with the Cloon?
I think everyone forgot that pretty soon,
Nebraskas chances here are pretty grey
(yeah, thinking of that joke took me all day)
Since this time the Cloon is out in space,
And Alfonso Cuaron is likely to win this race,
Meaning there could be a Pic/Director split,
But I dont think Steve McQueen will quit,
Its great to see him getting notice for 12 Years a Slave,
Even if Im pretending its really for Shame,
And then theres Oscar favourite David O. Russell,
Getting his third nomination for American Hustle,
Which is great for making an easy rhyme,
But I didnt find the movie to be a good time,
Yet, my loyalties lie with The Wolf of Wall Street,
With Martin Scorseses direction being no mean feat,
Because his direction is terrifyingly fun,
And better than anyone else could do at 71.

All I can say is that I want Alfonso Cuaron to win because Gravity is easily the best directed film of the decade, but then I want Steve McQueen to win because 12 Years a Slave makes the third out of three movies of his that got 5/5 from me. But I also want Martin Scorsese to win because his direction of The Wolf of Wall Street is so amazing because he is taking the piss out of so much and it is beautiful. And yeah, I havent seen Nebraska so I cant comment on Alexander Payne and well...not a fan of either David O. Russell or American Hustle. Apart from the fact that they rhyme. Whenever I say "American Hustle by David O. Russell" I automatically feel like putting my hood up, getting out my grills and corn rows and start an underground rap career.

At least I took something away from that movie...





Remember when Jennifer Lawrence fell up the stairs?
Lets hope that doesnt happen for a second year,
J-Law seems to be a bit of a chance,
Even if her performance is a bit of a farce,
But all hopes are pinned on Lupita Nyongo,
Who is absolute perfection in her first screen go,
Theres also Hawkins, Roberts and Squibb,
Who wont be the ones whom the Academy give,
Still, the race is neck and neck,
And Nyongo is probably the smartest bet.

Well...all I can hope is that Jennifer Lawrence doesnt prematurely win another Oscar. Im still not over her winning last year for Silver Linings Playbook (again, I love the movie, but I didnt love her performance at all), and I can honestly say that she was my least favourite performer out of the big five in American Hustle. However, it definitely does look as if she remains a 50% chance to take this award, with Lupita Nyongo being the other 50%. And I just hope more than anything that Lupita does win, because her speech will be absolutely beautiful and Im still emotionally scarred by her performance in 12 Years a Slave.




Jared Leto seems to have this race all but won,
But lets pretend theres a little surprising fun,
Even though its not for the amazing Shame,
Its great to see the Fass finally getting Oscar fame,
Bradley Cooper has nomination number two,
For being my favourite of the Hustle crew,
Jonah Hills also back for a second round,
How weird does that sentence sound?
Even cooler is the guy whos the captain now,
Barkhad Abdis screen debut sure does wow,
With a BAFTA in his hand he could surprise,
But the winner will be Jared Leto in disguise.

Yeah, Jared Leto is almost definitely going to win this one. Which is absolutely fine, because it is great to have him back on our screens and hes a wonderful Rayon. However, there is every possibility that Barkhad Abdi could be the captain now with this one, since people cant resist the story behind his sudden rise to fame and how wonderful his performance is. I may just be speaking as someone who loves Abdi dearly, but if theres anyone who can contend with Leto, it is him. This category is crazy good, though, with Jonah Hill being my second favourite thing about The Wolf of Wall Street, Bradley Cooper being my favourite thing about American Hustle and Michael Fassbender being my favourite thing about life. Actually - in my English lecture yesterday, we were talking about slavery and the lecturer brought up 12 Years a Slave and then all of a sudden he said "who loves the Fass?" Seriously, Canterbury is my favourite place.



Amy Adams gets her first nom for being a lead,
And its nomination number 18 for Meryl Streep,
Everyone has won before,
Apart from Adams who has missed out x4,
This doesnt seem to be her year,
For no-one seems to compare,
To the brilliant work by Queen Cate,
Who makes a Jasmine to love and hate,
While shes impossible to beat,
Sandra Bullocks Gravity performance has some heat,
Judi Dench is an outside bet,
Considering all the love the Brits usually get.

Theres no way that Cate Blanchett wont be winning this. Which is perfect, because shell be accepting the award off Daniel Day-Lewis and itll probably become one of my top five Oscar moments because both of them are flawless royals of cinema. Im probably more excited about Daniel Day-Lewis presenting this award than I am Cate Blanchett winning it (because God knows when well ever see the guy again), but seriously, Cate will become one of the most deserving actress winners ever. She is perfect in that film.



Sorry, I cant put this category into poetry. It is hard enough doing a prediction for it. But heres how I think thisll go down:
-Christian Bale has absolutely no chance because he is where Tom Hanks should have been.
-Bruce Dern could easily go in for the upset but no one has really been talking up Nebraska, but maybe Im just turning a deaf ear because I havent seen the film.
-Matthew McConaughey is currently the favourite and thats good because the McConnaissance is my favourite thing to be living through and I like to imagine this is all for Killer Joe. But I just dont believe he can win yet.
-Chiwetel Ejiofor, however, I can see winning. Ive actually laid awake thinking about him winning for several nights in a row. I think he can just pull it out of the hat.
-Buuuuuuut theres Leonardo DiCaprio. Who I still believe has every chance of winning. I know that it is hopeful and maybe a little delusional, but can people ignore that this is his best performance ever? Everyone is saying so. And I feel like I just have to predict him as the winner. Because his performance is my favouite of the year by far. And I just want to see him win for this performance.

This category is tearing my soul apart. SO MANY DIVIDED LOYALTIES. But yeah, Im predicting Leonardo. Haters gon hate. Cant be tamed. Never learn. Yolo. All that stuff.

"When life gives you lemmons, turn it into an Oscar."

Anyway, what do you think about these categories? Who do you think will come out on top? Anyone have as much faith in Leo as me?

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